The Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for 2027 is projected to land at 3.5 percent, a figure that would raise the average retired worker's monthly check by roughly $73. The estimate, from the nonpartisan senior advocacy group The Senior Citizens League (TSCL), is the latest in a series of forecasts that have slipped downward since spring as inflation has cooled. But the official number won't be final until the Social Security Administration (SSA) announces it in October 2026, after the government publishes the last piece of inflation data it needs.
For the roughly 75 million people who receive Social Security or Supplemental Security Income (SSI) benefits, the COLA is one of the most closely watched numbers of the year. It determines how much monthly payments rise to keep up with the cost of living — and it directly shapes the budgets of retirees, disabled workers, and survivors nationwide.
How the Social Security COLA Is Calculated
The COLA isn't a number that lawmakers or SSA officials choose by hand. Since 1975, the annual adjustment has been tied automatically to inflation through a specific government price index called the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, better known as the CPI-W.
The formula works like this: the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) calculates the CPI-W every month. To set the COLA, the SSA compares the average CPI-W for the third quarter — July, August, and September — of the current year with the average from those same three months a year earlier. The percentage difference between the two numbers becomes the COLA for the following year.
That's why the announcement always waits until October: the September inflation report, which completes the third-quarter average, isn't released until early to mid-October. Once the COLA is set, it takes effect with benefit payments delivered in January, and SSI recipients typically see their adjusted payments arrive at the very end of December.
When the 2027 COLA Will Be Announced
The Social Security Administration has confirmed it will announce the next COLA in October 2026, and analysts tracking the federal release calendar point to mid-October — around October 14 — as the most likely date. The figure is usually made public within days of the September CPI-W data being released.
After the percentage is official, the SSA sends personalized notices in December showing every beneficiary the exact dollar amount of their new monthly payment for 2027. Beneficiaries can also see the updated amount in their online my Social Security account.
Tracking the 2027 COLA Forecast: A Timeline
The 2027 projection has been a moving target all year, gradually shrinking as price growth slowed. The first early forecasts, published in May 2026, suggested the adjustment could land between 3.9 percent and 4.2 percent, and independent Social Security analyst Mary Johnson initially projected a 4.7 percent increase in June. Since then, the estimates have come down steadily:
- August 3, 2026: TSCL projected 3.8 percent.
- August 12, 2026: The estimate dipped to 3.6 percent.
- September 10–11, 2026: TSCL held at 3.6 percent, while AARP also forecast 3.6 percent.
- September 15, 2026: TSCL lowered its projection to 3.5 percent.
The downward drift reflects cooling inflation in the CPI-W, the same trend that has pushed price growth lower relative to the surge earlier in the decade.
What a 3.5% Increase Looks Like in Dollars
The Social Security Administration reports the average monthly benefit for all retired workers was about $2,015 in 2026, though other tallies put the average check closer to $2,083 to $2,088 by mid-2026 as newly eligible, higher-earning retirees entered the rolls.
A 3.5 percent COLA would add roughly $71 to $73 a month to the average retirement benefit — about $850 to $876 over the course of a full year. CNBC Select estimates a 3.5 percent adjustment would lift the average check from about $2,026 to $2,099, while a slightly higher 3.6 percent adjustment would push it to around $2,146, according to CBS News.
There's an important caveat for beneficiaries enrolled in Medicare: most people have their Part B premiums deducted directly from their Social Security checks. If Medicare Part B premiums rise in 2027, a portion of the COLA increase can be absorbed by higher premiums, leaving a smaller net boost in take-home pay.
How 2027 Compares to Recent COLA History
A 3.5 percent adjustment would be larger than the 2.8 percent COLA beneficiaries received for 2026, which added about $56 a month to the average check, and bigger than the 2.5 percent adjustment for 2025. It would still fall far short of the 8.7 percent COLA paid in 2023 — the largest since 1981, driven by the post-pandemic inflation surge.
Here's how the last four COLAs stack up:
- 2023: 8.7 percent
- 2024: 3.2 percent
- 2025: 2.5 percent
- 2026: 2.8 percent
Since automatic COLAs began in 1975, there have been only three years with no adjustment at all — 2010, 2011, and 2016 — all periods when the CPI-W did not rise from one year to the next.
What Happens Next
The final September CPI-W report is the last data point the SSA needs, and it is expected in mid-October 2026. The official 2027 COLA announcement should follow almost immediately. From there, the new benefit amounts take effect with January 2027 payments.
For retirees and other beneficiaries, the practical next step is simple: watch for the October announcement, review the personalized notice that arrives in December, and log in to a my Social Security account to confirm the updated payment amount. Because the COLA is applied automatically, no action is required to receive the increase.
The Bottom Line
- The 2027 Social Security COLA is projected at 3.5 percent, down from earlier estimates of nearly 4 percent.
- The official figure will be announced in October 2026, most likely around mid-month.
- A 3.5 percent adjustment would add roughly $71 to $73 a month to the average retired worker's check.
- The COLA is calculated automatically using third-quarter CPI-W inflation and takes effect in January 2027.
- Higher Medicare Part B premiums could reduce the net increase for some beneficiaries.
Social Security COLA 2027: Projected 3.5% Benefit Increase
The Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for 2027 is projected to land at 3.5 percent, a figure that would raise the average retired worker's monthly check by roughly $73. The estimate, from the nonpartisan senior advocacy group The Senior Citizens League (TSCL), is the latest in a series of forecasts that have slipped downward since spring as inflation has cooled. But the official number won't be final until the Social Security Administration (SSA) announces it in October 2026, after the government publishes the last piece of inflation data it needs.
For the roughly 75 million people who receive Social Security or Supplemental Security Income (SSI) benefits, the COLA is one of the most closely watched numbers of the year. It determines how much monthly payments rise to keep up with the cost of living — and it directly shapes the budgets of retirees, disabled workers, and survivors nationwide.
How the Social Security COLA Is Calculated
The COLA isn't a number that lawmakers or SSA officials choose by hand. Since 1975, the annual adjustment has been tied automatically to inflation through a specific government price index called the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, better known as the CPI-W.
The formula works like this: the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) calculates the CPI-W every month. To set the COLA, the SSA compares the average CPI-W for the third quarter — July, August, and September — of the current year with the average from those same three months a year earlier. The percentage difference between the two numbers becomes the COLA for the following year.
That's why the announcement always waits until October: the September inflation report, which completes the third-quarter average, isn't released until early to mid-October. Once the COLA is set, it takes effect with benefit payments delivered in January, and SSI recipients typically see their adjusted payments arrive at the very end of December.
When the 2027 COLA Will Be Announced
The Social Security Administration has confirmed it will announce the next COLA in October 2026, and analysts tracking the federal release calendar point to mid-October — around October 14 — as the most likely date. The figure is usually made public within days of the September CPI-W data being released.
After the percentage is official, the SSA sends personalized notices in December showing every beneficiary the exact dollar amount of their new monthly payment for 2027. Beneficiaries can also see the updated amount in their online my Social Security account.
Tracking the 2027 COLA Forecast: A Timeline
The 2027 projection has been a moving target all year, gradually shrinking as price growth slowed. The first early forecasts, published in May 2026, suggested the adjustment could land between 3.9 percent and 4.2 percent, and independent Social Security analyst Mary Johnson initially projected a 4.7 percent increase in June. Since then, the estimates have come down steadily:
The downward drift reflects cooling inflation in the CPI-W, the same trend that has pushed price growth lower relative to the surge earlier in the decade.
What a 3.5% Increase Looks Like in Dollars
The Social Security Administration reports the average monthly benefit for all retired workers was about $2,015 in 2026, though other tallies put the average check closer to $2,083 to $2,088 by mid-2026 as newly eligible, higher-earning retirees entered the rolls.
A 3.5 percent COLA would add roughly $71 to $73 a month to the average retirement benefit — about $850 to $876 over the course of a full year. CNBC Select estimates a 3.5 percent adjustment would lift the average check from about $2,026 to $2,099, while a slightly higher 3.6 percent adjustment would push it to around $2,146, according to CBS News.
There's an important caveat for beneficiaries enrolled in Medicare: most people have their Part B premiums deducted directly from their Social Security checks. If Medicare Part B premiums rise in 2027, a portion of the COLA increase can be absorbed by higher premiums, leaving a smaller net boost in take-home pay.
How 2027 Compares to Recent COLA History
A 3.5 percent adjustment would be larger than the 2.8 percent COLA beneficiaries received for 2026, which added about $56 a month to the average check, and bigger than the 2.5 percent adjustment for 2025. It would still fall far short of the 8.7 percent COLA paid in 2023 — the largest since 1981, driven by the post-pandemic inflation surge.
Here's how the last four COLAs stack up:
Since automatic COLAs began in 1975, there have been only three years with no adjustment at all — 2010, 2011, and 2016 — all periods when the CPI-W did not rise from one year to the next.
What Happens Next
The final September CPI-W report is the last data point the SSA needs, and it is expected in mid-October 2026. The official 2027 COLA announcement should follow almost immediately. From there, the new benefit amounts take effect with January 2027 payments.
For retirees and other beneficiaries, the practical next step is simple: watch for the October announcement, review the personalized notice that arrives in December, and log in to a my Social Security account to confirm the updated payment amount. Because the COLA is applied automatically, no action is required to receive the increase.
The Bottom Line